Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as market share. “Targets” is primarily a receiver stat (although there are a few notable early exceptions). Hits are the ball carrier’s currency.
What we do is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is goals divided by team pass attempts. For ball carriers, it’s hits divided by team plays from the scrum (not team hits, to be clear).
The number of snaps and the depth of the target and the type of contact (return receptions are far more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. It’s pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for evaluating waivers and trades.
Here is the list. Be sure to select the current week, but all weeks in the season will be archived so you can get a sample of multiple weeks on a player if you want. Also note that as the season progresses I have put a lot of thought into doing these stats on a weekly basis and not for the season. The goal here is to react quickly to current trends. Yearly stats just smooth everything into a more meaningless midpoint. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so aptly puts it, “To be absolutely right, you have to be prepared to be absolutely wrong.”
A.J. Brown was No. 2 and should be a Top 10 WR going forward, or at least in that bucket. same for me Tyreek Hill at No. 4 (36.4%).
You want a target share of 30% and of course when we line up the WR we want 100% of the targets. But the 45.9% for Davante Adams is actually a negative for Derek Carr and the Raiders offense. They must involve other people.
Saquon Barkley at 33.3% of targets, it’s crazy. Its floor is Christian McCaffrey’s ceiling. The only question is whether he is now RB2 or RB1. I will keep it behind Jonathan Taylorfor the moment.
Amon-Ra St. Brown could be 30% year-round. It will be around 180 targets. He is the poor man’s Cooper Kupp and should be in the overall WR10 bucket in full PPR.
Donovan Peoples Jones has Jacoby “The Mummy” Brissett as QB. Brissett plays in slow motion. But if DPJ exceeds the 30% target share in week 1, we need to make him at least a limit WR3 even with a massive Brissett tax.
Robbie Anderson was nearly 30% compared to just over 22% for DJ Moore. It is a narrow passage tree for Carolina. Anderson is at least a Top 40 WR right now and should accept an FAAB offer of around 15% – my FAAB formula is half the target share for WRs and double the market share for RBs, more than 15%.
Javonte Williams, at close to 30%, that’s great for his managers, but that’s why you get fewer points. It’s a wide league of receivers and the Broncos have two really good ones they should be using a lot more than in Week 1 — Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are tied for 49th in market share. Peyton Manning was asking for the ball to be thrown to Sutton on the simulcast almost every game, after meeting with Wilson and the coaches.
I bet the #1 TE in market share is available on waivers in your league, although I don’t know why the Rams are throwing so many passes at Tyler Higbee.
Pat Freiermuth is No. 2 and should be pitched in most leagues, even with Mitch Trubisky as QB.
Lamb CeeDee at #23 won’t work with Dak Prescott, and maybe not even with him.
Do we want to sign for 26% market share for Michael Pitman? Is it close. I want 30% though.
Greg Dortch is a classic second waiver pickup. The WR Cardinals stink, including Marquise Brown. Yeah, you gotta keep Brown because he could get a ton of those special Arizona horizontal targets. But Dortch, who was very productive in college, could be an umpiring Brown. Yes, he is about 5ft 7in and 150lbs. All Arizona WRs have to be smaller than Kyler Murray – I think that’s the rule there. Brown can’t survive 15.8%, by the way. Dortch was 23.7%, about 50% higher.
Rex Burkhead with a target share of 21.6%? Good God. Look, you gotta have it if no one believes. Go bid 10% of your FAAB. Earn lousy. You will live if he gets hurt in the second quarter on Sunday.
Listen, I have to say it, but Gabe Davis at 15.8% is a degradation. You’re still playing with it, so it’s not actionable. But I was expecting at least 20-22%. Week 2 is important for him with this number.
I like DeAndré Carter if/when Keenan Allen is out, but note that he only had four targets and therefore did not draw (five is the minimum).
Leonard Fournette is a Top 10 RB for trading purposes, his 37% hit share (fourth) confirms this.
I would trade for David Montgomery. All the smart kids hate it and love it Khalil Herbert. I get it, but if you can get a share of more than 35% hits after week 1 for no more than a sixth-round prize, do it.
The Saints played nickel all day, which is why the Falcons went wild. I do not believe in a 35% market share for Cordarelle Patterson is durable, but I have to put it solidly in the RB2 group. same for me Antonio Gibson, which is 30%. I believe in Gibson more than Patterson for some reason. But that’s more about the model, not my opinion.
Christian McCaffrey cannot be 28%. He’s RB3 at best right now. We need 35-40% if we start it at week 2. If it drops much lower again, be worried.
Burkhead is No. 14, with heavy passing volume, so he needs to be at least RB30 this week.
Maybe I trashed my By Andre Swift RB15 ranking too fast because he was RB16 in contact rate. Without goal line work and with that market share, it’s going to be very difficult to stay in the Top 10 fantasy RB.
Kenyan drake may be free of waivers for nothing in the second wave and was 21st on our list. The Jets defense can be good. I understand the Dolphins are a good defense, sure, but he’s at least a zeroRB this week if JK Dobbins is out. Again, you can wait until just before kickoff. Also, revenge game for Drake!
Miles Sander is #25, but its setup is so good and it’s so effective that I’d move it to RB20 or so.
Dameon Pierce is around RB35, where I had it rated. He was RB36 in touches. He needs a Burkhead injury. I know it’s crazy, but it’s true.
Single diviner is RB37. It makes no sense because Zack Moss is bad. Singletary pops up in virtually every contact. But we may have to live with that. I bet Singletary’s superiority is undeniable and he will be at least RB15 or more in no time.
(Top photo: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)